Model-Based Estimation of Agronomic Value Responses to Seasonal Forecasts
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53555/nnfaes.v7i3.936Keywords:
ENSO Phases, Forecast, Rainfall, Maize, Season, YieldAbstract
Projecting crop yields and aggregate production of the region is of the highest interest for maize production markets which is the source of economic development of the farmers. We used Agriculture Production Systems sIMulation (APSIM 7.10) to simulate the maize yield of Nkotsi region of Rwanda for two seasons SOND and MAM. For this simulation, daily meteorological data of the rainfall, Solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature are inputs of the model. The impact of the ElNi~no-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phases and the yield is demonstrated, it is found that ElNi~no phase is good for maize and LaNina lead to the small yield. We compared the simulated yield with observed the author realize that they are correlated with R Square of 0.89. We identified cropping practices of profit-maximizing based on climate information. The seasonal rainfall forecasting has been done by Climate
Predictability Tools(CPT15) and WeatherMan Version 4.7, utilizing General Circulation Model (GCM) and Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) data from 1985 to 2019.
Related: https://nnpub.org/index.php/FAES/article/view/1411
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